Asteroid Apophis does n’t currently stick a terror to Earth when it passes by in a few years , but an astrophysicist has envisioned a scenario where that could change .
The good newsworthiness is that an utterly untamed series of events — like cosmic bullet train colliding at full speed and bend one at an incredibly exact slant — would have to occur for this likely catastrophe to materialize .
In 2021 , NASA released ananalysisof Apophis ’ flight , concluding that the asteroid does n’t position a scourge to Earth in the immediate future . While there will be close passes in 2029 and 2036 , and an even closer approach in 2068 , NASA ’s calculation found no risk of direct impact . In fact , NASA official said our planet should be dependable from Apophis foranother 100 years .
An artist’s rendition of Apophis, happily soaring through space and not crashing into any planets.© The Planetary Society; CC BY-NC 3.0
Apaperpublished inThe Planetary Science Journalthis past March supported that conclusion — mostly . In the theme , Paul Wiegert , an astrophysicist at Canada ’s Western University , said that , while Apophis ’ current trajectory dumbfound no threat , the asteroid will have a near - encounter in December 2026 with another asteroid , 4544 Xanthus . The two compass will bring the asteroids within less than 6,200 miles ( 10,000 klick ) of each other , but they will reach that closest point about four hour apart , wipe out the risk of a lineal hit . However , any stuff accompanying Xanthus could still strike Apophis , potentially altering its path and sending it towards Earth . Gulp .
Wiegert has now updated his computation in a new studypublishedin the same journal , determine that there is a tangible — albeit incredibly lowly — fortune that Apophis could collide with a small asteroid , tap it off its current course . Although Wiegert acknowledged the odds are “ extremely low , ” he pointed out that there have been observed collision between asteroids and other asteroid or comets .
Wiegert also pointed out that Apophis is not on a unmediated collision class with any of the 1.2 million known asteroid . However , there are numberless midget asteroids that are too little to track , manyof which strike Earth each year .
According to his computation , if an asteroid with enough mass and velocity were to make Apophis at precisely the right time , it could spell trouble for homo . What are the odds ? The chances of Apophis getting hit by something are less than one in a million and the odds of that strike deflecting it towards Earth are “ Less than one in 1 billion , ” Wiegert wrote .
According to the study , Apophis is currently in the daytime sky and wo n’t be discernible until 2027 . But once we can see it , we ’ll cognize fairly speedily if we ’re in trouble . “ Most of the impact danger could be retired by a undivided observation of Apophis in 2027 , ” wrote Wiegert . If a collision occurs before long before the asteroid go forth from the Sun ’s spotlight , it may not be immediately apparent that Apophis has been redirected towards our planet , but the appearance of rubble would be a planetary house that something major had materialise , remind astronomer to count a new flight .
appropriately , given the unlikely succession of events required for Apophis to come to Earth , the asteroid is named after the Egyptian god of chaos .
As Apophis approaches Earth , there are program in home for it to nibble up several fellow traveler , including NASA ’s OSIRIS - APEX — the spacecraft formerly make love as OSIRIS - REx . The probe , which previously call in asteroid Bennu , will inquire Apophis in June 2029 , after the asteroid ’s April 2029 flyby of Earth .
NASA ’s OSIRIS - APEX Brushes the Sun on Its Way to New Asteroid Target
In accession , the European Space Agency ispreparing a spacecraft , knight the Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety ( Ramses ) , that will be commit out to meet the asteroid on its journeying . Aboard Ramses will be two small CubeSats that will observe how the asteroid ’s physical properties change due to Earth ’s gravity as it flies by . The primary mission is to garner information on the asteroid that could tender clues about how terrestrial planets originate and evolve . ESA has also expressed hope it could also aid in developing wandering defense systems against next cosmic aim on collision courses with Earth . Ramses is currently schedule for an April 2028 launch .
Even if this unsound case scenario comes dead on target , it might not spell the closing of humanity ; the asteroid potentially serve up a ruinous , rather than an experiential , risk . Apophis measures around 1,100 infantry ( 340 beat ) long , which might sound big , but the asteroid that is believed to have killed off the dinosaurs is count on to have been between six to nine miles ( 10 to 15 kilometers ) wide . So even if you ’re an Apophis pessimist , matter could be worse .
apophisAstrophysicspotentially risky asteroid
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